 |
| BYD compact car |
(BYD is a Chinese electric car, bus, and monorail maker; ICEV stands Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle, EV stands for Electric Vehicle, NEV stands for New Energy Vehicle. Phew!)
I posted here that China was going to ban the sales and production of ICEVs at some point, but the government hadn't yet said what that date was. BYD's chairman, Wang Chuanfu, has now said that this will be in 2030 and that 100% of sales must be NEVs by then. He should have a very good idea of the date -- BYD is the world's largest electric car manufacturer. Since NEVs includes plug-in hybrids as well as EVs and hydrogen-cell vehicles, there will still be some emissions from burning petrol and diesel. But much less than there are now, because 90% car trips are short, and the plug in hybrid will use its electric motor and its battery, with the petrol/diesel engine only being used for long trips.
2030 is just 12 years away. The average car maker takes 5 years from model conception through production to the cars appearing in showrooms. Europe is setting 2040 as the date when ICEVs will stop being sold. But as China aggressively switches to EVs it will gain a huge competitive advantage on world markets. China produces and buys 1/3rd of the world's cars. How many venerable names in Europe and the USA will vanish as the car market transforms? How many will end up as 100% subsidiaries of Chinese car firms, as Volvo now is? How will the European auto powerhouse, Germany, manage this transition? Does anybody still seriously think the future lies in petrol cars?
Time for hard questions in chancelleries and auto and oil board rooms round the world.
No comments:
Post a Comment