Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. I do make mistakes, but I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct. Remember: the unexpected sometimes happens. The expected does too, but all too often it takes longer than you thought it would.

The Goddess of Markets punishes (eventually) greed, folly, laziness and arrogance. No matter how many years you've served Her. Take care. Be humble. And don't blame me.

BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.

Sunday, November 23, 2014

I've eaten so there's no world hunger

When you mention global warming to ppl, they say, yes but it's cold today, as if global warming means that it will always be hot.  That's as stupid as saying, after you've eaten a big meal, that there's no such thing as world hunger.

The recent abnormally cold spell in the US has led the usual suspects to proclaim that global warming is a furphy.  These two articles explain why that isn't so.

Buffalo's Climate Change Driven Mega Snow & Flood

Growing Evidence That Global Warming Is Driving Crazy Winters.

I would be very happy if global warming wasn't happening.  I could stop worrying about the future of my children and grandchildren, and about the survival of our civilisation.  But it is.

The chart below shows, incontrovertibly, that average global temperatures are rising.  Even if it has been cold in the eastern US in the last week.  It shows the 12 month average temperature to October each year.  Notice how the year 1998 was an obvious statistical outlier.  It was also a strong el nino year.  We are not having an el nino, yet, though Australia's Bureau of Meteorology has just upped its risk of one to 70%.  All the same, even without an el nino, we have  record global temperatures for the last 12 months.  Just how hot will 2015 be if we do have a strong el nino?

The climate change deniers cherry-pick data points (for example, 1998) to show that global temperatures aren't rising.  Or they point to snowfalls outside their windows.  But the evidence, the scientific evidence, is extremely hard to deny.   Unless you are a coal-miner or a demented  right-wing plutocrat.

 (Chart source: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/global/globe/land_ocean/1/10/1880-2014, double click chart to see full size)

Friday, November 21, 2014

Hottest ever October

[double click to get full sized chart; source]

October 2014 was the hottest October ever measured. May, June, August and September were also the hottest ever recorded for those months.  July was the fourth hottest July measured.  The 12 months to October were once again a record, and the five years to October was also a record, for the first time.  So much for the "pause".

The folly, greed and selfishness of those who maintain that global warming isn't occurring is beyond belief.  That 95% of these ppl are on the right tells you much about the intrinsic morality and integrity of their philosophy.  Shameful.  And dangerous.